Kalshi CFTC Market Limits

Kalshi is an up-and-coming legal US prediction market regulated by the CFTC.

The markets on Kalshi each have a betting limit which may be found within a PDF sent to the CFTC by KalshiEX LLC.

Unfortunately these PDFs are formatted differently (some even have the limit as an image rather than text). To make discovering betting limits even more tedious, there’s 702 of these PDFs (all linked on this page). As the second-highest user on the Kalshi leaderboard (of course there’s a leaderboard…) I needed to know all of these limits.

I used Claude‘s PDF beta API to extract all information from the PDFs and include it here. All coding work took me a total of fifteen minutes from scraping->extraction->summarization->this blog post.

You can sort and search the below list if for any reason you need to know the per-market contract limits on Kalshi. Most markets have a limit of $25K USD, although some larger markets have limits of $7M or $50M. Hopefully the CFTC allows these to be increased in the future! If you enjoyed this post you may also like my personal finance tips post.

CONTRACT CODECONTRACT NAMEDATEPOSITION LIMIT
SCOTREFWill another sanctioned Scottish independence referendum be announced before <date>?April 30, 2024$25,000
NEWTAYLORWill Taylor Swift announce a new album before <date>?February 15, 2024$25,000
EURUSDWill EUR/USD be <above/below/between> <count>?August 9, 2022$25,000
GOOGLESHAREWill Google's search market share be <above/below/between> <count> by <date>?February 27, 2024$25,000
SCOURTWill <person> be the next Supreme Court justice?January 31, 2022$25,000
DHSLEAVEWill Alejandro Mayorkas leave office before <date>?January 30, 2024$25,000
RETAILWill retail sales be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?August 10, 2023$25,000
ERCOTWhat share of Texas's electricity will be from zero-carbon sources?12/15/2021$25,000
EXITPOLLSHARE"Will <political party> win <above/below/between> <percent> of <constituency> in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 31, 2024$25,000
REMOVEWill the President be impeached and removed from office before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
FLIGHTLAXWill <greater than/less than/between> <count> flights be delayed or canceled at Los Angeles International Airport on <date>?07/11/2022$25,000
BAFTAWill <nominee> win <award> at the BAFTAs?February 7, 2024$25,000
WACAPTRADE"Will Washington State vote in favor of Washington Initiative 2117 in 2024?"October 24, 2024$25,000
SCOTUSWill a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed?December 2, 2021$25,000
AOH1996Will AOH1996 reach phase <number> clinical trials by <date>?August 4, 2023$25,000
LAYOFFSYWill <year> layoffs in <sector> in <year> be <above/below/between> <count>?March 14, 2024$25,000
SENATEPARTY"Will <political party> win <Senate seat> for the term starting <year>?"October 4, 2024$3,000,000
MAYORSFWill <candidate> control the Mayorship of San Francisco after the election of <election year>?October 31, 2024$50,000,000
COOKWill Lisa Cook be confirmed to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board?April 11, 2022$25,000
CREDITCWill SOFR be <above/below/between> <count> by <date>?July 6, 2023$25,000
AMCCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of AMC leave by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
MAYORNYC"Will <candidate> control the Mayorship of New York City after the election of <election year>?"November 7, 2024$1,000,000
ADAMSWill Eric Adams leave office or announce his intent to resign as Mayor of New York City before <date>?October 9, 2024$25,000
MAUBERWill Massachusetts vote in favor of question 3 (relating to rideshare driver collective bargaining) in 2024?October 24, 2024$25,000
538CALLWill FiveThirtyEight correctly call the 2024 U.S. presidential election?November 1, 2024$25,000
UNIPRESIDENTSWill university <president> be announced to be leaving their position by <date>?May 2, 2024$25,000
HOTYEAR"Will the mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index for <year> be <above/below/between> <value>?"July 6, 2023$25,000
SHUTDOWNBYWill the government shut down by <date>?March 14, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYLOUWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Louisville?September 5, 2023$25,000
POPVOTESTATEMOVWill the American presidential election popular vote be in favor of <political party> in <state> in <election year> by <above/below/between/at least> <percent>?October 4, 2024$50,000,000
RAINNYCMWill it rain <above/below/between> <inches> in New York City in <month>?February 7, 2024$25,000
SCHEDULEF"Will the Trump Administration reinstate Schedule F before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
MOOREUSWill the Supreme Court rule that the mandatory repatriation tax is unconstitutional?November 29, 2023$25,000
GVGWill the Supreme Court's ruling in Gonzalez v. Google rule that Section 230 does not immunize ICS algorithms?March 23, 2023$25,000
MORTGAGEWill the 30-Yr FRM get <above/below> <interest rate> by <date>?May 11, 2022$25,000
COLUMBPRESIDENTWill the president of Columbia University be announced to be leaving their position by <date>?April 19, 2024$25,000
REACTORWill the Nuclear Regulatory Commission issue a new combined license for a nuclear reactor by <date>?October 20, 2023$25,000
OPENAICEOWill <person> be the CEO of OpenAI by <date>?November 20, 2023$25,000
SEC230Will Section 230 be weakened?February 10, 2022$25,000
KalshiEX LLCWill real GDP <increase/decrease> by more than <percent>?June 29, 2021$25,000
VONCWill there be a successful vote of no confidence in the United Kingdom?March 9, 2022$25,000
GLOBALCO2"Will global CO2 emissions be <above/below/between> <count> in <year>?"May 16, 2024$25,000
FOREXWhat will the exchange rate of <currency> be?January 25, 2022$25,000
GOVPARTYNOMWill <political party> nominate <candidate> to contest the governorship of <state> in <election year>?November 7, 2024$3,000,000
CHINALLMWill a Chinese company have a top-ranked LLM before <date>?February 9, 2024$25,000
CPISHELTERWill the shelter component of the consumer price index change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?December 15, 2023$25,000
ADOBEUSWill the DOJ win their lawsuit against Adobe?October 21, 2024$25,000
DEBTWill the U.S. government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product be <above/below/between> <percent> <before/in> <quarter>?October 18, 2024$25,000
BOEINGCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Boeing leave by <date>?January 24, 2024$25,000
KIDVAXKIDVAX contract relating to whether the FDA will authorize a COVID-19 vaccine shot for children under the age of 129/22/2021$25,000
AAAGASWill the average price of gas in <area> be <above/below/between> <price> on <date>?September 13, 2023$25,000
PRESNOMWill <candidate> be the presidential nominee of <political party> in <election year>?October 4, 2024$3,000,000
CANADAPARTY"Will <party> win the most seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?"October 21, 2024$7,000,000
BARRWill Michael Barr be confirmed to be the Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Federal Reserve?May 2, 2022$25,000
CHILDSWill J. Michelle Childs be confirmed to be the United States Circuit Judge for the District of Columbia Circuit?May 2, 2022$25,000
NONCOMPETEWill the FTC finalize its rule banning the enforcement of non-compete agreements?April 27, 2023$25,000
USCLIMATEWill the U.S. hit its climate goals?April 5, 2024$25,000
PRESURUGUAYWill <candidate> be elected President of Uruguay pursuant to the 2024 Presidential election?November 1, 2024$7,000,000
DEFICIT"Will the federal <surplus/deficit> <increase/decrease> by <above/below/between> <count> in <Presidential term>?"November 7, 2024$25,000
TOPLLMWill <organization>'s LLM not be the top ranked LLM before <date>?February 9, 2024$25,000
FEDBALANCEWill the Federal Reserve's balance sheet be <above/below> <count> by <date>?May 30, 2023$25,000
ECPOPVOTEWill the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win the Presidency?October 31, 2024$3,000,000
FEMAWill there be a FEMA Major Disaster Declaration across <state> by <date>?August 16, 2023$25,000
GPTPARAMWill parameters in GPT-4 be above <count>?September 7, 2023$25,000
NEURALINKWill a Neuralink device be implanted in a human brain by <date>?November 29, 2023$25,000
AMEND22Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to permit a third presidential term before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
SWINGSTATES24"Will a single party win all swing states in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 18, 2024$3,000,000
MAMMAMIA3Will a third Mamma Mia film be announced before <date>?April 19, 2024$25,000
RECNCCFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the RECNC Contract8/9/2021$25,000
ARINFLATIONWill inflation in Argentina be <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?January 25, 2024$25,000
SNOWNYHow much will it snow in New York City?12/7/2021$25,000
NPPCWill the Supreme Court strike down Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross?10/18/2022$25,000
VINEWill X bring back Vine before <date>?April 23, 2024$25,000
USDXWill USDX be <above/below/between> <count> by <date>?July 6, 2023$25,000
FEDHIKEWill the Fed hike rates by <date>?December 14, 2023$7,000,000
CHINATOPLLMWill a Chinese company have an LLM ranked higher overall than Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI LLMs before <date>?May 20, 2024$25,000
AILEGISLATIONWill Congress pass legislation limiting large language models by <date>?April 30, 2024$25,000
NETNEUWill net neutrality be reimposed?November 25, 2021$25,000
FEDTarget Federal Funds Rate ContractJune 30, 2021$25,000
MINWAGEWill the federal minimum wage be increased before <date>?May 16, 2024$25,000
RRFWill Congress replenish the Restaurant Revitalization Fund by <date>?April 13, 2022$25,000
PHEICWill the WHO declare a public health emergency before <date>?April 23, 2024$25,000
NETCHOICEWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners in NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton?March 13, 2024$25,000
AVATARS2Will Netflix's Avatar: The Last Airbender get a season 2?February 29, 2024$25,000
TRAVELWARNWill the U.S. State Department recommend Americans do not travel to Beijing?April 20, 2022$25,000
WKCASEWeekly Covid casesAugust 16, 2021$25,000
ROBOTAXIOUTWill Tesla release the Robotaxi to the public before <date>?April 10, 2024$25,000
KDOTKDOT Contract relating to the consumption of an upcoming album released by Kendrick LamarOctober 31, 2021$25,000
TIKTOKBANWill TikTok be banned in the United States?April 11, 2023$25,000
NYSCHLNYSCHL Contract8/29/2021$25,000
BTCMINMAXWill the spot price of Bitcoin be <above/below> <price> by <date> at <time>?March 14, 2024$25,000
LEADERSHIP"Will <individual> be the <position> on February 1 following <election year>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
GBPWill the GBP/USD exchange rate be <above/below/between> <count>?April 27, 2022$25,000
CREDEFMINMAXWill commercial real estate defaults be <above/below> <percent> by <quarter>?August 30, 2023$7,000,000
MESSIAHWill a third Dune film be announced before <date>?February 21, 2024$25,000
LCNCOVID"Will average COVID-19 case numbers be <above/below> <count> in China by <date>?"April 19, 2022$25,000
CPIWill the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase more than <percent>?June 29, 2021$25,000
LANAREYThe LANAREY Contract is a contract relating to the consumption of Lana del Rey's new album, Blue BanistersOctober 20, 2021$25,000
UNIPRESIDENTWill university <president> be announced to be leaving their position by <date>?December 7, 2023$25,000
HURWILWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Wilmington?August 11, 2023$25,000
TAPERTAPER Contract8/23/2021$25,000
NYCWill New York City close indoor dining?July 6, 2021$25,000
SOURSOUR Contract, relating to whether Olivia Rodrigo's debut album Sour will be the most consumed album of 2021October 1, 2021$25,000
YOYCPICOREWill core inflation be <above/below/between> <percent> for the 12 months ending <month>?December 19, 2022$25,000
GRANTSPASSWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners in City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson?March 13, 2024$25,000
IMPEACH"Will the President be impeached before <date>?"November 7, 2024$25,000
GTA6Will Grand Theft Auto VI's release date be by <date>?November 29, 2023$25,000
FEDFACILITYWill the Fed establish a new lending facility by <date>?March 14, 2024$25,000
RPUNISHWill the GOP punish its members who voted for the bipartisan infrastructure bill?November 17, 2021$25,000
DONDA2Will consumption of Donda 2 be over <count>?February 14, 2022$25,000
MANCHINWill Joe Manchin leave Democratic leadership?November 23, 2021$25,000
HURMIAWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Miami?06/28/2022$25,000
AXONFTCWill the Supreme Court rule that Congress did not impliedly strip federal courts of jurisdiction to adjudicate constitutional challenges to the structure of the FTC in Axon Enterprise, Inc. v. Federal Trade Commission?December 8, 2022$25,000
737MAX9Will the Boeing 737 Max 9 return to service by <date>?January 10, 2024$25,000
USICAWill USICA become law?February 3, 2022$25,000
EMERGENCYRAPWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Rapid City?September 5, 2023$25,000
CORECPIWill core CPI growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?06/29/2022$25,000
TRUMPADMINOFFICIALWill <person> join the Trump Presidential Administration before <date>?November 7, 2024$25,000
POPVOTE"Will <political party> win the American presidential election popular vote in <election year>?"October 4, 2024$7,000,000
GRAMMYNOM"Will <nominee> be nominated for <award> at the <number> Grammys?"March 12, 2024$25,000
CONLEADER"Will <candidate> win the 2024 U.K. Conservative leadership election?"October 18, 2024$7,000,000
EUROWill the Euro/USD exchange rate be <above/below/between> <count>?March 15, 2022$25,000
CPIFOODWill the price of food change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?September 6, 2023$25,000
HOMEWill new U.S. home sales be above <count>?June 29, 2021$25,000
OSCARCOUNTWill <film> win <above/below/between> <count> awards at the Oscars?January 30, 2024$25,000
U3"Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above <percent>?"July 1, 2021$25,000
WTIOILWill the settle price of WTI crude oil futures be <above/below/between> <price> for <date>?March 4, 2024$25,000
ASYLUMCASESWill credible fear cases be above <count> in <period>?January 10, 2024$25,000
FEMALECEOWill the Fortune 500 have at least <count> non-male CEOs on <date>?April 16, 2024$25,000
NORDSTREAM2Will Nord Stream 2 enter service before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
METACRITICWill <game> have a Metacritic score of <above/below/between> <count> on <date>?March 7, 2024$25,000
OAIAGIWill OpenAI claim to have achieved AGI by <date>?January 5, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYHOUWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Houston?September 5, 2023$25,000
TIKTOKCOURTWill a U.S. Federal Court ruling overturn a ban against TikTok in a final judgment not subject to appeal?April 23, 2024$25,000
ZYNBANWill the United States ban Zyn nicotine patches?February 2, 2024$25,000
MTEMPMonthly Global Temperature Contract9/27/2021$25,000
H5N1Will the H5N1 avian flu be named a <public health emergency of international concern/pandemic> by the WHO?February 27, 2023$25,000
BORDERWill <body> pass a border bill before <date>?January 30, 2024$25,000
LEPOPWill any monthly U.S. employment-population ratio be <above/below> <percent> this year?February 24, 2022$25,000
RAINMIAMiami Precipitation ContractAugust 26, 2021$25,000
VOTERID"Will the Trump Administration take executive action regarding providing proof of citizenship or identification to register to vote or vote before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
HURNYCWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit New York City?06/28/2022$25,000
EUCLIMATEWill the EU meet climate <goal>?May 6, 2024$25,000
ACPIWill inflation be <above/below/between> <percent> this year?March 7, 2022$25,000
TESLAROADSTERWill Tesla deliver the second generation Roadster before <date>?April 19, 2024$25,000
PPIWill PPI growth be <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?April 27, 2023$25,000
TOPAI"Will <organization> have a #1 ranked LLM before <date>?"October 21, 2024$25,000
COVIDBILLWill a new COVID-19 package become law by <date>?April 12, 2022$25,000
Rule_40.2"Will total US credit card debt be above <dollar amount>?"July 19, 2021$25,000
CORIVER"Will the Bureau of Reclamation projection for the start of <year> Lake Mead water level be <feet> or below?"06/30/2022$25,000
TSAW"Will weekly average TSA airport screenings be above <count>?"July 11, 2021$25,000
RECSSRECSS contract (Contract relating to whether or not there will be a quarter of negative real GDP growth in the next four quarters as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis)August 3, 2021$25,000
CNAMBWill Nicholas Burns be confirmed as Chinese Ambassador?November 14, 2021$25,000
DEBATES24Will there be <count> presidential debates in 2024?April 22, 2024$25,000
10Y2YWill the 10-year/2-year yield curve be <above/below/between> <percent> by <date>?March 2, 2023$25,000
APPLECARWill Apple announce the development of a vehicle by <date>?October 20, 2023$25,000
OAIPROFITWill OpenAI become a for-profit before <date>?October 21, 2024$25,000
NEWSCOTUSCONF"Will <above/below/between/exactly> <count> Supreme Court justices be confirmed during <Presidential term>?"November 1, 2024$25,000
POPVOTEMOV"Will the American presidential election popular vote be in favor of <political party> in <election year> by <above/below/between/at least> <percent>?"October 4, 2024$50,000,000
VISIONPROWill Apple launch the Apple Vision Pro by <date>?December 18, 2023$25,000
SAGAWARDSWill <nominee> win <award> at the SAG Awards?February 7, 2024$25,000
KILAUEAKilauea Volcanic Eruption Evacuation10/5/2021$25,000
NHIGHThe NHIGH contract is a contract relating to the high temperature observed in New York City on a particular dayAugust 3, 2021$25,000
RIHANNAWill Rihanna release a new album on Spotify before <date>?April 3, 2024$25,000
HURCATThe HURCAT Contract is a contract relating to whether a given named storm will reach certain thresholds for sustained wind speedAugust 26, 2021$25,000
DONDA<xxx>Donda album consumption ContractAugust 1, 2021$25,000
OPENAIBOARDWill <person> <join/leave> the board of OpenAI?November 20, 2023$25,000
Rule_100.16"Will weekly average subway ridership in New York City be above <count>?"July 11, 2021$25,000
TOPFIVEPOPWill <artist> be named as in the top five pop artists of the 21st century by Billboard?October 24, 2024$25,000
NETFLIXRANKWill <movie/show> be <above/below/between/equal to> <count> on the Netflix <chart> for <date>?May 13, 2024$25,000
FDICWill FDIC deposit insurance increase by <date>?April 27, 2023$25,000
SCOTUSPOWERWill the Supreme Court have <count_1> conservatives and <count_2> liberals on <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
MOONMOON Contract - Contract relating to NASA's Artemis mission which is designed to establish human settlement on the Moon10/19/21$25,000
PHILHIGH"Will the high temperature in Philadelphia be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees> on <date>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
PILLWill the FDA approve a pill to fight COVID-19?December 16, 2021$25,000
ACPICOREWill core inflation be <above/below/between> <percent> this year?July 6, 2023$7,000,000
TIMEWill <person> be Time Person of the Year for <year>?November 28, 2023$25,000
EUCOVWhat will the COVID-19 caseload be in <country>?December 12, 2021$25,000
SWINGSWEEPPARTY24Will a single party win all swing states in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 31, 2024$3,000,000
AIORDERWill President Trump rescind President Biden's Executive Order regarding AI before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
BIRTHRIGHT"Will the Trump Administration take executive action regarding birthright citizenship before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
GBPUSDWill GBP/USD be <above/below/between> <count>?March 5, 2024$25,000
VARIANTWill <variant> make up <percentage> of U.S. COVID-19 cases?November 14, 2021$25,000
TOP3WEALTHWill <person> be the wealthiest person in the world before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
TOPTENWill <artist> have the top ten of the Billboard Hot 100 songs in a given week?February 7, 2024$25,000
NEPAWill a NEPA permitting reform bill become law?11/24/2022$25,000
US_China_Trade_Deficit_ContractWill the US trade deficit in goods with China be above <dollar amount>?June 29, 2021$25,000
ACAREPEAL"Will a bill become law repealing at least one of the core parts of the Affordable Care Act before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
TOPPOPWill <artist> be named as #1 pop artist of the 21st century by Billboard?October 24, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYPHILWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Philadelphia?September 5, 2023$25,000
TOPARTIST"Will <artist> be the top Spotify artist of <year>?" ContractJanuary 5, 2024$25,000
CABINETNOMWill <individual> be nominated for a cabinet seat before <date>?October 14, 2024$25,000
CONTROLWill <chamber of Congress> be controlled by <party> for <term>?June 12, 2023$50,000,000
NYTOAIWill OpenAI be held civilly liable for violating the copyright of The New York Times in <court>?December 28, 2023$25,000
CFPBWill the Supreme Court rule the CFPB's method of funding unconstitutional?October 20, 2023$25,000
1SONGWill <artist> have a #1 song by <date>?May 7, 2024$25,000
CHANCELLOR"Will a member of <party> be the first German Chancellor elected after the <year> German federal election?"November 1, 2024$25,000
DEBATEWill <topic> be mentioned by a candidate at the 2024 presidential <debate>?June 25, 2024$25,000
DIESELWill average diesel prices be <above/below/between> <price>?10/18/2022$25,000
CTCChild Tax Credit9/6/2021$25,000
SPACEXWill the FAA record SpaceX launching <rocket> by <date>?December 18, 2023$25,000
NEWOUTBREAKWill <disease> be declared a <epidemic_level>?May 14, 2024$25,000
EURUSDMINMAXWill EUR/USD be <above/below> <count> by <date>?January 17, 2023$25,000
CASELOWCASELOW - COVID-19 Case FloorSeptember 23, 2021$25,000
EVSHAREWill the share of electric vehicles be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?April 10, 2024$25,000
AIOPENWill there be a frontier open-source AI model before <date>?October 18, 2024$25,000
CPIAPPARELWill the price of apparel change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?September 6, 2023$25,000
IMOAIWill an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad before <date>?March 27, 2024$25,000
ISAMB"Will <nominee> be confirmed to be Ambassador to Israel by <date>?"September 7, 2023$25,000
VOHCVOHC ContractSeptember 2nd, 2021$25,000
BIDENVNEBRASKAWill the Supreme Court's ruling in Biden v. Nebraska lift the injunction on Biden's student plan?January 27, 2023$25,000
NEWCOACHWill <coach> be the next coach of <team>?May 8, 2024$25,000
PARIS"Will the Trump Administration withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accords before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
538STATESWill FiveThirtyEight correctly call <above/below/between/exactly> <count> states in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 31, 2024$25,000
VAXMANDWill the injunction against the OSHA vaccine mandate remain?November 30, 2021$25,000
CREDITCDEFWill credit card defaults be <above/below/between> <percent> in <quarter>?August 10, 2023$25,000
TRANSMILITARY"Will the Trump Administration take executive action regarding transgender members of the armed forces before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
OILWill the price of oil be <above/below> <price>?February 27, 2022$25,000
ONRRPONRRP contract (Contract relating to the aggregated daily value of reverse repurchase agreements made by the Federal Reserve)8/23/2021$25,000
PRESROMANIA"Will <candidate> be elected President of Romania pursuant to the 2024 Presidential election?"November 1, 2024$7,000,000
FTCANTITRUSTWill the FTC bring antitrust claims against <company>?October 25, 2024$25,000
STARWARSWill a new Star Wars film be released in theaters before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
AIPLATEAU"Will <organization> not release a <model> at least <count> elo points higher than its highest model?"October 18, 2024$25,000
LARGETARIFFWill Donald Trump become President and impose large tariffs?October 24, 2024$7,000,000
CNCOVIDWill average COVID-19 case numbers be <above/below/between> <count> in China?March 21, 2022$25,000
RAINNYWill more than <inches> of precipitation fall in New York City?July 29, 2021$25,000
MLBOAKMLBOAK Contract - CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the MLBOAK Contract10/27/2021$25,000
BBBWill Build Back Better become law?February 27, 2022$25,000
SFDINESan Francisco Ban on Indoor Dining8/17/21$25,000
TRUMPADMINROLEWill <person> be nominated or appointed by the Trump Presidential Administration to be <role> before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
XCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of X leave?December 18, 2023$25,000
RPOLLING"Will <candidate> poll <above/below> <count> by <date>?"September 7, 2023$25,000
GLBTEMPWill <year> be the hottest year on record?February 15, 2022$25,000
ECONPATHWill there be <high_u/low_u> unemployment and <high_i/low_i> inflation in <period>?August 1, 2022$25,000
NOBELWill <candidate> win the Nobel Prize for <subject> for <year>?August 9, 2023$25,000
STATEWINPOPVOTE"Will the candidate that wins <state> <win/lose> the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 31, 2024$50,000,000
DCEILWill Congress raise or suspend the debt ceiling?November 9, 2021$25,000
HURCHARLWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Charleston?August 11, 2023$25,000
LIFEEXPWill U.S. life expectancy be <above/below/between> <count> in <year>?July 31, 2023$25,000
DRAKEDrake's Certified Lover Boy8/19/2021$25,000
NFPDELAYWill the non-farm payroll release for <month> be released by <date>?September 25, 2023$7,000,000
ARCTICICEWhat will the extent of Arctic sea ice be in <period>?November 18, 2022$25,000
SUPERCONWill room-temperature superconductivity be replicated by <date>?August 2, 2023$25,000
GERMANYSEATSWill <party> win <above/below/between/exactly> <count> seats in the Bundestag in the <year> German federal election?November 1, 2024$25,000
TORNADOWill there be <above/below/between> <count> tornadoes in <month>?June 23, 2023$25,000
EMERGENCYCOLWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Columbus?September 5, 2023$25,000
CORPTAXWill the top federal corporate tax rate be <increased/decreased> <above/below/between> <percent> before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
WRECSSWill <country> have a recession before <date>?April 22, 2024$25,000
BRADYWill Tom Brady play in the NFL again before <date>?May 8, 2024$25,000
GRAMMYWho will win at the Grammys?March 7, 2024$25,000
STATEGROUP"Will <states> vote together in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 29, 2024$3,000,000
OMAROVAOMAROVA ContractOctober 21, 2021$25,000
DEBATEHAPPENWill <debate> occur on its scheduled date?June 25, 2024$25,000
AUSPM"Will a member of <political party> be the first Australian Prime Minister for the <number> Parliament of Australia?"November 1, 2024$25,000
JPMCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of JPMorgan Chase leave by <date>?January 4, 2024$25,000
MEASLESWill there be more than <count> measles cases in <year>?July 21, 2023$25,000
AUSHIGHWill the high temperature in Austin be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees>?May 8, 2023$25,000
WHEATWill the price of wheat be <above/below/between> <price>?March 30, 2022$25,000
TECHLAYOFFWill tech layoffs be <above/below/between> <rate> in <month>?August 25, 2023$25,000
SPACEXCOUNTWill SpaceX have <above/below/between> <count> launches in <period>?March 27, 2024$25,000
PREKUniversal Pre-Kindergarten9/14/2021$25,000
SAGWill the SAG strike end by <date>?July 18, 2023$25,000
UAWLENGTHWill the UAW strike end by <date>?September 19, 2023$25,000
RTCOMPARISONSET"Will <movie> in <set> have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score in <period>?"October 25, 2024$25,000
FEDCONFWill Jerome Powell be confirmed Chair of the Fed?November 22, 2021$25,000
CARVMAKWill the Supreme Court side with the plaintiffs in Carson v. Makin on constitutional grounds?December 1, 2021$25,000
NYTOAISETTLEWill The New York Times settle its copyright infringement claims against OpenAI?January 4, 2024$25,000
JREPODCASTWill the Joe Rogan Experience ever not be the top-ranked podcast on Spotify before <date>?October 24, 2024$25,000
PLANETPLANET Contract10/17/21$25,000
MICHWill Michigan football's next coach be <coach>?January 16, 2024$25,000
SPACEXORBITWill SpaceX's Starship reach orbit before <date>?March 7, 2024$25,000
NYCDEBITSWill NYC expand the debit card program for migrants?February 23, 2024$25,000
BEYONCEGENREWill Beyonce's next album appear on the Billboard <chart>?May 6, 2024$25,000
EVICTEVICT Contract9/12/2021$25,000
VAXX"Will over <number> of Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19?"July 15, 2021$25,000
BELICHICKWill Bill Belichick be coach of <team> before <date>?April 22, 2024$25,000
NYCDNWill indoor dining be closed in NYC?December 21, 2021$25,000
BRAINARDWill Lael Brainard be confirmed to be the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve?April 11, 2022$25,000
BALANCESHEET"Will the Federal Reserve's balance sheet be <above/below/between> <count> <before/on> <date>?"October 25, 2024$25,000
APPLEUSWill the DOJ win their anti-trust suit against Apple?March 25, 2024$25,000
TECHREGWill the American Choice and Innovation Online Act become law?March 13, 2022$25,000
NONCOMPETEBANWill the FTC's prohibition against non-competes be overturned?April 30, 2024$25,000
GPT5Will GPT-5 be released by <date>?April 11, 2023$25,000
SLOANWill federal student loan forbearance be extended?July 1, 2021$25,000
CO2What will the CO2 emissions for <month> be?November 9, 2021$25,000
MASK-001CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) Notification Regarding the Initial Listing of the MASK-001 Contract, relating to whether New York City will reinstate a mask mandateJuly 29, 2021$25,000
MORTGAGEDEFWill mortgage defaults be <above/below/between> <percent> in <quarter>?August 15, 2023$25,000
GOOGLEBREAKUPWill a court order a break-up or divestiture of Alphabet in United States v. Google LLC (2020) before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
CREDEFWill commercial real estate defaults be <above/below/between> <percent> in <quarter>?August 18, 2023$25,000
COVID-19_new_casesWill there be more than <count> new COVID-19 cases on <date>?July 21, 2021$25,000
EARTHQUAKEWill a <count> or higher earthquake happen before <date>?April 4, 2024$25,000
HOUHIGH"Will the high temperature in Houston be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees> on <date>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
FLIGHTORDWill <greater than/less than/between> <count> flights be delayed or canceled at Chicago O'Hare on <date>?7/11/2022$25,000
ARTISTPEAK"Will a <song/album> by <artist> reach a peak <above/below/between/equal to> <count> on the Billboard <chart>?"October 24, 2024$25,000
DEFAULTWill the US default on its debt?January 27, 2023$25,000
DEBUTRANKWill <album> have a debut ranking of <rank> on the Billboard 200?October 25, 2024$25,000
APPLEAIWill Apple announce an AI partnership with <company>?April 19, 2024$25,000
CMEATBANTIMEWill any state ban cultivated meat before <date>?June 6, 2024$25,000
SORAWill OpenAI's Sora be released to the public before <date>?February 27, 2024$25,000
SFRENTWill rent growth in San Francisco be <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?April 22, 2024$25,000
MEASLESWill there be more than <count> measles cases in <year>?July 21, 2023$25,000
TOPALBUMRECORDWill <album> be on top of the Billboard 200 for <above/below/between> <weeks>?February 15, 2024$25,000
YOYCPIWill year-over-year inflation for the year ending <month> be <above/below/between> <percent>?December 5, 2022$25,000
CRYPTOREG"Will a bill become law granting authority to a federal agency to regulate digital asset spot markets before <date>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
MONTEROMONTERO Contract (a contract relating to whether Lil Nas X's upcoming new album Montero will have strictly more than <value> consumption and be released prior to a given date)9/15/2021$25,000
DRIVERSWhether Olivia Rodrigo's "Driver's License" will be the most streamed song in 2021October 1, 2021$25,000
DOSE4Will the CDC recommend a second booster?3/28/2022$25,000
ALBMBillie Eilish's "Happier Than Ever" album consumption ContractJuly 1, 2021$25,000
BANKRUPTSWill the aggregate number of corporate bankruptcies in <period> be <above/below> <count>?October 20, 2023$25,000
CLDPLAYCLDPLAY ContractOctober 13, 2021$25,000
DENHIGH"Will the high temperature in Denver be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
HOUSEPARTYWill <political party> control <House seat> for the term starting <year>?October 4, 2024$3,000,000
JOBSWill initial jobless claims be <higher, lower> than <count>?July 13, 2021$25,000
TESLAOPTIMUSWill a Tesla Optimus robot be available for sale to the general public before <date>?February 8, 2024$25,000
ECADVANTAGE"Will the margin between the national popular vote and the tipping point state of the electoral college winner be <above/below/between> <percent>?"October 31, 2024$25,000
WEWORKCEOWill the CEO of WeWork be <person>?February 15, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYSTLWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect St. Louis?September 5, 2023$25,000
MICHTEMPWill Lake Michigan water temperature be <above/below/between> <degrees> on <date>?08/16/2022$25,000
MEISSNERWill the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature?January 4, 2024$25,000
10Y3MWill the 10-year/3-month yield curve be <above/below/between> <percent> by <date>?March 2, 2023$25,000
GOOGLECEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Google leave by <date>?January 24, 2024$25,000
USDTWDMINMAXWill USD/TWD be <above/below> <count> by <date>?July 6, 2023$25,000
LOWESTRATEWhat will the lowest federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve be by <date>?December 14, 2023$7,000,000
SHUTDOWNSHUTDOWN Contract9/26/2021$25,000
RTWill <movie> have a Rotten Tomatoes score of <above/below/between> <count> on <date>?February 21, 2024$25,000
COYOTEACMEWill a release of Coyote vs. Acme be announced before <date>?April 23, 2024$25,000
HIGHMOV"Which <state> will <political party> win by the highest margin of victory in <election year>?"October 18, 2024$50,000,000
USTESTSWill US test scores in <subject> experience <change> in <year>?May 6, 2024$25,000
SFSCHLSan Francisco Public School Reopenings8/29/2021$25,000
GPT45Will GPT-4.5 be released by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
TESLAM2Will Tesla announce a low-cost electric vehicle before <date>?April 10, 2024$25,000
EMMYSWill <nominee> win <award> at the Emmys?August 29, 2022$25,000
ETHWill the spot price of Ether be <above/below/between> <price> on <date> at <time>?March 14, 2024$25,000
TOKMEDTOKMED Contract, relating to the number of medals awarded at the 2020 Tokyo OlympicsAugust 1, 2021$25,000
PREKTERMS OF CONTRACTS TRADED ON KALSHI Contract: PREK9/15/2021$25,000
ECMOV"Will the American presidential election electoral college be in favor of <political party> in <election year> by <above/below/between/at least> <votes>?"October 4, 2024$3,000,000
LASTSTATECALLWill <state> be the last state called by the AP in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 31, 2024$7,000,000
GLACIERWill the Supreme Court rule that the National Labor Relations Act does not preempt a state tort claim against the International Brotherhood of Teamsters in Glacier Northwest Inc. v. International Brotherhood of Teamsters?December 8, 2022$25,000
HURCOASTTEXWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit coastal Texas?August 11, 2023$25,000
SOHNWill Gigi Sohn be confirmed to be a Member of the Federal Communications CommissionApril 18, 2022$25,000
538APPROVEMINMAXWill the President's approval rating be <above/below> <percentage points> by <date> according to FiveThirtyEight?February 28, 2023$25,000
SPOTIFYRANKWill <artist> be <above/below/between> <rank> before <date>?April 12, 2024$25,000
AUSTRALIAPARTY"Will <party> win the most seats in the 2025 Australian federal election?"October 21, 2024$7,000,000
TRDBANWill stock trading by members of Congress be banned?March 10, 2022$25,000
CANADAPM"Will a member of <party> be the first Canadian Prime Minister for the <number> Parliament of Canada?"November 1, 2024$25,000
CANADASEATSWill <party> win <above/below/between/exactly> <count> seats in the House of Commons for the <number> Parliament of Canada?November 1, 2024$25,000
USEDCARWill the price of used cars and trucks change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?August 1, 2023$25,000
ETHETFWill an ETH ETF be listed by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
SUBWAYWill average New York City subway ridership in a given week be <above/below/between> <count> before <date>?October 21, 2024$25,000
WEIGHTDRUGSQWill weight loss drug prescriptions grow by more than <percent> in <quarter>?October 20, 2023$25,000
EXITPOLLWill <political party> win <constituency> in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 31, 2024$25,000
LU3Will any monthly U.S. unemployment rate be <above/below> <percent> this year?February 8, 2022$25,000
PRESPARTYFULLWill <political party> <win/lose> the electoral college and <win/lose> the popular vote in <election year>?October 4, 2024$3,000,000
ELECTION24RCPWill the RealClearPolitics polling average be <above/below/between> <percent> in favor of <political party> in the U.S presidential election on election day?November 5, 2024$25,000
METACRITICALBUMWill <album> have a Metacritic score of <above/below/between> <count>?October 21, 2024$25,000
HOUSELENGTHWill the median number of days housing inventory is on market <above/below/between> <count>?August 18, 2023$25,000
APPLEPORTWill Apple announce the development of a portless phone by <date>?October 20, 2023$25,000
TSAWill TSA airport screenings be above <count> on <date>?July 18, 2021$25,000
BEDOYAWill Alvaro Bedoya be confirmed as Commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission?April 14, 2022$25,000
RATECUTS"Will the number of rate cuts be <count>?"December 14, 2023$7,000,000
NGDPHow much will NGDP change?January 26, 2022$25,000
AISPIKE"Will <model> have an ELO score of at least <count> before <date>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
HPIHow much will the Housing Price Index change?November 29, 2021$25,000
MITACKMANWill more than <count> MIT faculty be accused of plagiarism?January 10, 2024$25,000
CPTPPCPTPP Contract10/13/2021$25,000
TOPSONGWill <song> be the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of <date>?May 30, 2023$25,000
HOT100Will last week's top song still top the Billboard Hot 100?February 2, 2022$25,000
$INXWill $INX close <above/below/between> <value> on <date>?April 26, 2022$25,000
FLIGHTJFKWill <greater than/less than/between> <count> flights be delayed or canceled at JFK Airport on <date>?07/11/2022$25,000
HOUSESTARTWill housing starts be <above/below/between> <count> in <month>?September 6, 2023$25,000
BTCETHRETURNWill <cryptocurrency_1> return more than <cryptocurrency_2> in <period>?May 1, 2024$25,000
TSUNAMIWill a tsunami of at least <count> maximum meters tall happen before <date>?April 4, 2024$25,000
CBVOLUMEWill Coinbase have <above/below/between> <count> <party> transaction volume in <quarter>?April 30, 2024$25,000
CREDITRATINGWill the credit rating of the United States fall by <date>?April 10, 2023$25,000
AUDUSDWill AUD/USD be <above/below/between> <count>?March 5, 2024$25,000
COINWill the United States mint the platinum coin?January 27, 2023$25,000
SPOTIFYCHART"Will <song/artist> be the top of the Spotify <chart> on <date>?"October 24, 2024$25,000
KANYE"Will consumption of Kanye West's Donda album be above <count> Album Units?"July 21, 2021$25,000
SALTXState and Local Tax Deduction9/10/2021$25,000
GOLDWill the price of gold be <above/below/between> <count> at <time> on <date>?September 7, 2022$25,000
LSNOWNYTotal Snowfall in NYC11/4/21$25,000
TOPALBUMBYWill <artist> have a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by <date>?February 29, 2024$25,000
FEDNOMFEDNOM Contract (Federal Reserve Chairman Nomination)9/22/2021$25,000
CHINAUSGDPWill China GDP exceed US GDP by <date>?April 26, 2024$25,000
HOMEUSWill the average home price in the US be <above/below/between> <percent>?July 27, 2022$25,000
GAMEAWARDSWill <nominee> win <award> at the <year> Game Awards?April 23, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYNOLAWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect New Orleans?August 31, 2023$25,000
EMERGENCYMIAWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Miami?September 5, 2023$25,000
IVYFUNDINGWill Congress remove funding for Ivy League schools before <date>?May 6, 2024$25,000
PMLAPMLA Contract (relating to the highest level of PM 2.5 pollution in Los Angeles)8/29/2021$25,000
SKRMETTIWill the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee Bill 1 violates the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause?November 8, 2024$25,000
CAPGAINCAPGAIN contract (A contract relating to whether or not the tax on long-term capital gains will be increased)September 2, 2021$25,000
DEBUTSONGRANK"Will <song> have a debut ranking of <rank> on the Billboard Hot 100?"November 1, 2024$25,000
RAINNYCNew York City PrecipitationSeptember 2, 2021$25,000
RAINSEAThe RAINSEA contract is a contract relating to the amount of precipitation in SeattleAugust 16, 2021$25,000
LLM1Will <organization> have the top ranked LLM on <date>?March 13, 2024$25,000
SUEZWill the Suez Canal close?December 22, 2023$25,000
TRANSSPORTSWill the Trump Administration take executive action regarding transgender athletes <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
TEUWill Turkey join the European Union?July 6, 2021$25,000
TOPPOPWill <artist> be named as #<rank> pop artist of the 21st century by Billboard?October 25, 2024$25,000
RAINHOUHouston Precipitation08/26/2021$25,000
USHIGHWill the highest temperature in the United States be <above/below/between> <count>?September 6, 2023$25,000
NPRDEFUNDWill Congress defund NPR before <date>?April 23, 2024$25,000
EUROIMFWill the IMF's reporting of the EUR/USD exchange rate be <above/below/between> <count>?June 30, 2022$25,000
USDRUBMINMAXWill USD/RUB be <above/below> <count> by <date>?July 20, 2023$25,000
AITURINGWill Ray Kurzweil win his prediction that an AI will pass the Turing Test by 2029?March 27, 2024$25,000
GOVBALLGOVBALL Contract9/9/2021$25,000
RUBLEWill the USD/Ruble exchange rate be <above/below> <count>?February 27, 2022$25,000
STATEWIN"Will <party> win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and win <state>?"October 31, 2024$3,000,000
OPENAICEOCHANGEWill OpenAI change its CEO by <date>?November 20, 2023$25,000
GNSOURGrammy Album of the Year nomination contract for Olivia Rodrigo's SourNovember 3, 2021$25,000
STARSHIPMARSWill Starship launch a manned mission to Mars by <date>?March 21, 2024$25,000
HFHOUSINGWill a bill taxing or banning hedge funds from owning single-family homes become law before <date>?May 8, 2024$25,000
JEFFERSONWill Philip Jefferson be confirmed to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board?April 11, 2022$25,000
ANCHORThe ANCHOR Contract (relating to the weekly average number of container vessels anchored at the Port of Los Angeles)October 5, 2021$25,000
NEWMODEL"Will <organization> release a new LLM model before <date>?"October 24, 2024$25,000
CMEATBANUSAWill the Trump Administration ban the sale of cultivated meat before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
MPOXCASES"Will there be a seven-day average of Mpox cases of at least <count> before <date>?"November 1, 2024$25,000
RTTVWill <show> have a Rotten Tomatoes score of <above/below/between> <count> on <date>?March 21, 2024$25,000
GOVPARTY"Will <political party> control the governorship of state after the election of <election year>?"October 4, 2024$3,000,000
NWESTWill North West release a new album on Spotify before <date>?March 26, 2024$25,000
YINVERTWill the yield curve invert?3/6/2022$25,000
SPACEXLANDWill SpaceX's Starship launch and land successfully before <date>?April 5, 2024$25,000
TIPPINGPOINT"What will be the tipping point jurisdiction in the American presidential election in <election year>?"October 4, 2024$3,000,000
WEALTHWill <person> be the wealthiest person in the world before <date>?February 2, 2024$25,000
LSNOWCHIWill it snow <above/below/between> <inches> in <month> in Chicago?January 31, 2024$25,000
SDEBTWill student loan debt be forgiven?February 23, 2022$25,000
NPRCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of NPR leave before <date>?April 23, 2024$25,000
INSULINCAPWill a bill become law ending or raising the cap on insulin prices?November 8, 2024$25,000
DEBTSIZEWill the national debt become <above/below/between/at least> <count> in <period>?November 8, 2024$25,000
IRONMANWill Robert Downey Jr. return to the MCU as Iron Man by <date>?May 20, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYDESWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Des Moines?September 5, 2023$25,000
RTNGSRTNGS contract (NFL Viewership)9/27/2021$25,000
AAAGASMINMAXWill the average price of gas in <area> be <above/below> <price> by <date>?September 13, 2023$25,000
CPIGASWill the gas component of the consumer price index change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?December 15, 2023$25,000
WTAXWTAX Contract (a contract relating to whether the United States will impose a new tax on wealth or unrealized capital gains)10/25/2021$25,000
GAMERANKWill <game> be <above/below/between/equal to> <count> on the Steam <chart> on <date>?May 13, 2024$25,000
OSCARNOMSWill <nominee> be nominated for <award> at the Oscars?March 4, 2024$25,000
HRECNCHouse Budget Reconciliation Bill8/23/2021$25,000
FBUSTERWill the filibuster cloture vote requirement be lowered?November 10, 2021$25,000
BTCWill the spot price of Bitcoin be <above/below/between> <price> on <date> at <time>?March 14, 2024$25,000
RATEHIKE"Will the number of rate hikes be <count>?"March 28, 2022$25,000
FEDDECISIONWill the Federal Reserve do <action> at <meeting>?April 5, 2023$25,000
TTFMINMAXWill the front-month Dutch TTF natural gas future be <above/below> <price> by <date>?April 10, 2023$25,000
FIRERANKWill <school> be ranked <above/at/below> <rank> in <year> on the FIRE free speech rankings?February 29, 2024$25,000
NEWSONGWill <artist> release a new song by <date>?June 6, 2024$25,000
HMONTHWill <month> <year> be the hottest <month> on record?January 5, 2024$25,000
HURORLWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Orlando?August 9, 2022$25,000
USDJPYMINMAXWill USD/JPY be <above/below> <count> by <date>?January 12, 2023$25,000
CTCWill the Child Tax Credit be expanded by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
MEADLake Mead Water Levels at Hoover Dam10/5/2021$25,000
AAPLCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Apple leave by <date>?January 4, 2024$25,000
EUEXPANSIONWill <country> join the EU by <date>?May 17, 2024$25,000
COSTCOWill Costco announce a price increase of <product> before <date>?April 30, 2024$25,000
LOPERWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo?August 15, 2023$25,000
SPOTIFYALBUMWill <album> have <above/below/between> <count> streams on Spotify on <date>?April 12, 2024$25,000
ANIMEWill <nominee> win <award> at the 8th Crunchyroll Anime Awards?February 15, 2024$25,000
GERMANYSEATS"Will <party> win <above/below/between/exactly> <count> seats in the Bundestag in the <year> German federal election?"November 1, 2024$25,000
DISNEYBOARDWill <person> <join/leave> the board of Disney?February 14, 2024$25,000
MUSKSEARCHWill searches for Elon Musk be <above/below/between> <count> <by/on> <date>?April 17, 2024$25,000
MSFTCEOWill <person> be the next CEO of Microsoft?November 22, 2023$25,000
MANHEIMWill used car prices change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period> according to Manheim?January 30, 2024$25,000
FEDMEETWill the Federal Reserve host an emergency meeting before <date>?August 6, 2024$25,000
USDJPYWill USD/JPY be <above/below/between> <count>?August 9, 2022$25,000
LIZARRAGAWill Jaime Lizárraga be confirmed to be a Member of the Securities and Exchange Commission?May 2, 2022$25,000
GOODS"Will the price of <good> be <above/below/between> <count> <before/in> <month>?"October 25, 2024$25,000
TOP20Will <artist> have a top 20 single by <date>?April 26, 2024$25,000
OMIVAXWill an Omicron vaccine be authorized?December 9, 2021$25,000
CANADACONFIDENCEWill there be a successful motion of no confidence in the Canadian House of Commons before <date>?November 1, 2024$25,000
HURMYRWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Myrtle Beach?August 11, 2023$25,000
EMERGENCYSFWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect San Francisco?September 5, 2023$25,000
ECLIPSECOVERWill <city> have cloud coverage of <above/below/between> <percent> during the Solar Eclipse?March 21, 2024$25,000
CORPWill a bill raising the corporate income tax above <percent> become law?July 22, 2021$25,000
TNOTEWhat will the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note be?January 24, 2021$25,000
ELECTIONSTATECALLWill <state> be called by the AP in the 2024 U.S. presidential election before <date> at <time>?October 31, 2024$7,000,000
INCOMETAX"Will the top federal income tax rate be <increased/decreased> <above/below/between> <percent> before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
WEBBJames Webb telescope launch10/14/2021$25,000
538APPROVEWill the President's approval rating be <above/below/between> <percentage points> on <date> according to FiveThirtyEight?April 25, 2022$25,000
AIDEBATESWill AI be a major topic at the 2024 U.S. presidential debates?March 27, 2024$25,000
CMEATBANWill <state> ban cultivated meat?March 26, 2024$25,000
LBJRWill LeBron James Jr. be drafted to <team>?May 2, 2024$25,000
GOOGLEUSWill Google be found to abuse monopoly power?October 20, 2023$25,000
RTCOMPARISONWill <movie> have the highest Rotten Tomatoes score in <period>?May 8, 2024$25,000
EASTCOASTPORTSTRIKEWill the International Longshoremen's Association go on strike before <date>?November 1, 2024$25,000
WINSTATELOSEWill <political party> win the 2024 U.S. presidential election but lose <states>?October 31, 2024$25,000
Vaccinate Rate ContractWill over <number> of Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19?July 6, 2021$25,000
ECTIEWill there be a 269-269 tie in the electoral college in <election year>?October 24, 2024$7,000,000
AVGTEMPWhat will the average temperature in the contiguous United States be in <month>?November 18, 2022$25,000
LCASEThe LCASE Contract is a contract relating to the number of new COVID-19 cases reported for a given day over certain period of time in the United StatesAugust 16, 2021$25,000
SPRWill the strategic petroleum reserve hold <above/below/between> <count> barrels before <date>?April 12, 2024$25,000
AILEGISLATIONWill Congress pass legislation limiting large language models by <date>?April 30, 2024$25,000
ACMAWill <nominee> win <award> at the Academy of Country Music Awards?March 5, 2024$25,000
TOPSONGS"Will there be <above/below/between> <count> number one songs in <year>?"October 18, 2024$25,000
RHGOLDWill Robinhood have <above/below/between> <count> Gold subscribers in <quarter>?April 30, 2024$25,000
LTHURLong-term Hurricane8/31/21$25,000
TEMPWill 2021 have a global average temperature >2.124℉ higher than the 1880 global average temperature?July 1, 2021$25,000
SWITCH2Will Nintendo announce a new gaming console by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
ARSTRIKEWill a general strike occur in Argentina by <date>?January 26, 2024$25,000
CPIDELAYWill the consumer price index release for <month> be released by <date>?September 22, 2023$7,000,000
PARDONWill <person> be pardoned during <Presidential term>?November 8, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYWILWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Wilmington?September 5, 2023$25,000
HURCALWill a <speed> hurricane hit California?August 18, 2023$25,000
WEEKNDWEEKND ContractOctober 31, 2021$25,000
DEMOCRACYWill <country> be <above/below/between> <count> on the The Economist Democracy Index?November 8, 2024$25,000
OPENAISUITWill Elon Musk win his lawsuit against OpenAI?March 4, 2024$25,000
LAHIGHWill the high temperature in Los Angeles be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees>?October 18, 2024$25,000
EUEXIT"Will any country leave the European Union by <date>?"May 17, 2024$25,000
HIGHWill the high in New York City be over <degrees>?July 14, 2021$25,000
TESLACEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Tesla leave by <date>?February 14, 2024$25,000
ELECTIONCALL"Will the 2024 presidential election be called before <date> at <time>?"October 18, 2024$7,000,000
AVENGERSWill the next Avengers movie be delayed?February 21, 2024$25,000
AGENCYCONFWill <nominee> be confirmed to be <agency> by <date>?May 30, 2023$25,000
PAYROLLSWill nonfarm payroll change be <above/below/between> <count>?March 8, 2022$25,000
TEMP_oldGlobal High Temperature ContractJune 30, 2021$25,000
SOFRSOFR contract (Contract relating to whether the daily Secured Overnight Financing Rate will be above value)8/25/2021$25,000
FORBWill federal student loan forbearance be extended?February 23, 2022$25,000
HURFLHURFL - Will a Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warning be issued for Miami-Dade County?August 10, 2021$25,000
TOPSONGRECORDWill <song> be on top of the Billboard Hot 100 for <above/below/between> <weeks>?May 6, 2024$25,000
GASTAXWill there be a federal gas tax holiday?March 23, 2022$25,000
BRAZILXWill Brazil <ban/unban> X?April 8, 2024$25,000
PRESPERSONWill <pres candidate> win the Presidency by being the first inaugurated as President for the <year> Term of Office?November 1, 2024$7,000,000
LBJRDRAFTWill LeBron James Jr. be drafted?May 8, 2024$25,000
AAPLWATCHWill Apple be banned from selling and importing the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 on <date>?January 5, 2024$25,000
LEAVEPOWELLWill Chairman Powell leave his position by <date>?April 30, 2024$25,000
BETTERSTATEWill the American presidential election popular vote be in favor of <political party> more <state_1> than <state_2> in <election year>?October 31, 2024$50,000,000
1DREUNIONWill One Direction have a reunion before <date>?October 24, 2024$25,000
PLEAVEWill a paid parental leave bill become law?December 16, 2021$25,000
ROGANFIRSTWill an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience interviewing Donald Trump be released before an episode with Kamala Harris?October 21, 2024$25,000
AMAZONFTCWill Amazon be found to abuse monopoly power?October 20, 2023$25,000
FBDAUWill Facebook daily active users be <above/below/between> <count> at the end of <quarter>?March 7, 2024$25,000
GRAMMYCOUNTWill <artist> win <above/below/between> <count> awards at the Grammys?January 31, 2024$25,000
EMERGENCYJACWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Jackson?September 5, 2023$25,000
H5N1CASESWill there be more than <count> H5N1 cases in <year>?June 6, 2024$25,000
NFLXSUBSWill Netflix subscribers change by <above/below/between> <count> subscribers in <quarter>?January 31, 2024$25,000
WTIMINMAXWill the front-month oil future be <above/below> <price> by <date>?January 17, 2023$25,000
MAYORNYCNOMWill <candidate> win the nomination of <political party> in the New York City election of <election year>?November 7, 2024$1,000,000
STATEWIN"Will the candidate that wins <state> win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 29, 2024$3,000,000
SPIDERVERSEWill Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released before <date>?March 26, 2024$25,000
ALTMANWill Sam Altman start a new AI organization by <date>?November 20, 2023$25,000
DISCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Disney leave by <date>?December 22, 2023$25,000
FEDEMPLOYEES"Will the number of federal government employees be <above/below/between> <count> before <month>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
LIVENATIONUS"Will the DOJ win their antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation?"October 21, 2024$25,000
NBERRECSSWill there be an official recession in <period>?06/29/2022$25,000
MORAESLEAVEWill Alexandre de Moraes leave the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before <date>?April 8, 2024$25,000
VOTESHARE"Will <candidate> receive <above/below/between> <percent> of the vote share in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?"October 31, 2024$25,000
JPYWill the USD/JPY exchange rate be <above/below/between> <count>?April 27, 2022$25,000
NASDAQ100Will the Nasdaq-100 close <date> <above/below/between> <value>?April 21, 2022$25,000
RULESWill <rule> be finalized before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
COMMENCEMENTWill commencement at <university> be canceled?May 2, 2024$25,000
NGASWill the price of natural gas be <above/below> <price>?3/1/2022$25,000
EARTHQUAKEWill a <count> or higher earthquake happen before <date>?April 4, 2024$25,000
WEIGHTDRUGSWill <above> <count> weight loss drugs be prescribed by <date>?August 31, 2023$25,000
EVMKTWhat will the electric vehicle market share be in the US?November 9, 2021$25,000
SPOTIFYSUBSWill Spotify subscribers be <above/below/between> <count> subscribers in <quarter>?March 13, 2024$25,000
MLBCBAMLB Collective Bargaining Agreement10/26/2021$25,000
PESOWill the USD/Mexican peso exchange rate be <above/below/between> <count>?March 16, 2022$25,000
RESIGNWill the President of the United States resign during <Presidential term>?November 8, 2024$25,000
INFRALWINFRALW contract relating to when the bipartisan infrastructure bill will become law8/23/2021$25,000
PRESPARTYDISTRICTWill <political party> win the American presidential election in <district> in <election year>?October 14, 2024$1,000,000
SOTWSong of the Week ContractOctober 8, 2021$25,000
HURHATWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Hatteras Island?August 11, 2023$25,000
COREPCEWill core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index inflation be <above/below/between> <percent> in <month>?December 6, 2022$25,000
METADAPWill Meta family daily active people average <above/below/between> <count> at the end of <quarter>?March 13, 2024$25,000
SEMIPRODWill semiconductor production change by <above/below/between> <percent> in <period>?June 6, 2024$25,000
MONKEYPOXWill monkeypox be named a pandemic by the WHO?August 4, 2022$25,000
MAERSKWill Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea by <date>?December 22, 2023$25,000
PRES"Will <pres candidate> or another <party> Representative win the Presidency by being the first inaugurated as President for the <year> Term of Office?"October 2, 2024$7,000,000
REALWAGESWill real wages grow in <period>?June 6, 2024$25,000
BTCRESERVE"Will the Trump Administration take executive action creating a National Bitcoin Reserve before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
CNGDPChina GDP9/26/2021$25,000
POPVOTESTATESHIFT"Will <state> shift <to/from> <political party> by <above/below/between> <percent> in the 2024 U.S. presidential election compared to 2020?"October 18, 2024$50,000,000
IRISHPM"Will a member of <political party> be the first Irish Taoiseach for the <number> government of Ireland?"November 1, 2024$25,000
LGDPWill any quarterly U.S. GDP growth be <above/below> <percent> this year?February 2, 2022$25,000
VOCWill the CDC identify a variant of concern?February 13, 2022$25,000
GASMINMAX"Will the price of gas be <above/below> <price> by <date>?"January 19, 2023$25,000
STATEPRESWill <political party> win any of <states> in the <election year> presidential election?October 18, 2024$50,000,000
WGDPWill GDP be <above/below> <count> in <area>?March 3, 2022$25,000
VANRATEWill the Truckstop.com dry van truck rate per mile be <above/below/between> <price> for <week>?10/18/2022$25,000
NYTSUBSWill The New York Times add <above/below/between> <count> new subscribers in <quarter>?May 1, 2024$25,000
SPIRITCEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Spirit leave by <date>?January 24, 2024$25,000
BOEWill the Bank of England set the bank rate <above/below/between> <percent> at <meeting>?12/20/2022$25,000
FTAPERFederal Reserve Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchases8/26/2021$25,000
NEWALBUMWill <artist> release a new album by <date>?May 16, 2024$25,000
ELECTIONDAYSWill the 2024 presidential election be called by the AP on <date>?October 25, 2024$7,000,000
CABSECWill <nominee> be confirmed to be <cabinet> by <date>?March 1, 2023$25,000
GERMANYCONFIDENCEWill there be a successful vote of no confidence in the German Bundestag before <date>?November 8, 2024$25,000
OPENAIPROFITWill OpenAI announce an end to its for-profit division by <date>?November 20, 2023$25,000
EMERGENCYLAWill a tornado, earthquake, flood, or hurricane affect Los Angeles?August 31, 2023$25,000
ORDDLYChicago O'Hare DelaysOctober 13, 2021$25,000
BILLBOARDPEAKWill <song/album> reach a peak <above/below/between/equal to> <count> on the Billboard <chart>?May 6, 2024$25,000
CONGRESSCHAIRSWill <member> be the <Chair/Ranking Member> of <Committee>?November 8, 2024$25,000
CALIFFWill Robert Califf be confirmed as FDA commissioner?November 28, 2021$25,000
RECSZSize of Reconciliation Bill9/23/2021$25,000
SEATSCONGRESS"Will <party> hold <above/below/between/exactly> <seats> <chamber of Congress> seats for <term>?"October 14, 2024$50,000,000
CABCOUNT"Will <above/below/between> <count> Cabinet members be confirmed before <date>?"November 7, 2024$25,000
FEDCONFSWill <nominee> be confirmed to be <Federal Reserve position>?March 16, 2023$25,000
APPSTOREWill the Open App Markets Act become law?3/14/2022$25,000
OHDISTRICTS"Will Issue 1 pass in Ohio?"November 1, 2024$25,000
TESLAPRODWill Tesla production exceed <count> in <quarter>?April 30, 2024$25,000
TOPALBUMWill <album> be the #1 album on the Billboard 200 for the week of <date>?August 2, 2023$25,000
OLYMPWill the 2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled?July 6, 2021$25,000
OAIGOOGLEWill the difference in capability between the best OpenAI and best Google large language models be <above/below/between> <count> elo points?November 1, 2024$25,000
HURSAVWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Savannah?August 11, 2023$25,000
PS6Will Sony announce the PlayStation 6 by <date>?February 27, 2024$25,000
HURNORWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Norfolk?September 13, 2023$25,000
CONGRESSMOVWill <political party> control <chamber of Congress> by <above/below/between/at least> <seats> after <election year>?October 4, 2024$50,000,000
DRUGNEG"Will a bill become law ending the requirement for Medicare to negotiate drug prices?"November 8, 2024$25,000
FLUVFDA Emergency Authorization of Fluvoxamine9/8/2021$25,000
ROGANWill an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience interviewing <candidate> be released before <date>?October 18, 2024$25,000
HMONTHRANGEWill the average temperature anomaly in <month> be <above/below/between> <count> degrees?May 22, 2024$25,000
TEXASDHSWill <court> rule in favor of the federal government in Texas v. Department of Homeland Security?January 26, 2024$25,000
SSTAX"Will a bill become law excluding social security from gross income for tax purposes before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
NYCRENTSWill rent in New York City be <above/below/between> <percent> according to StreetEasy?August 1, 2023$25,000
IRELANDPARTY"Will <party> win the most seats in the 2025 Irish general election?"October 21, 2024$7,000,000
ELECTION24538Will the FiveThirtyEight polling average be <above/below/between> <percent> in favor of <political party> in the U.S. presidential election on election day?October 31, 2024$25,000
HURNJWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit New Jersey?06/28/2022$25,000
OSCARSWill <nominee> win <award> at the Oscars?March 4, 2024$25,000
ECBWill the European Central Bank set the main refinancing operation rate <above/below/between> <percent> at <meeting>?12/21/2022$25,000
CHIHIGHChicago TemperatureAugust 16, 2021$25,000
Rule100.28"Will average gas prices be higher than <price>?"July 28, 2021$25,000
TOPALBUMYEAR"Will <album> be the number one album of <year>?"February 15, 2024$25,000
APPRANKWill <app> be <above/below/between/equal to> <count> on the Apple app store <chart> on <date>?May 13, 2024$25,000
DOLLARFEDWill the Fed <decision> at <meeting> and the EUR/USD move by <percent>?August 15, 2023$25,000
LCPIWill any monthly U.S. inflation be <above/below> <percent> this year?February 9, 2022$25,000
SHUTLENGTHWill the Federal government shut down for <above> <days>?January 19, 2023$25,000
HURJACKFLWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Jacksonville?September 13, 2023$25,000
USDARSMINMAXWill USD/ARS be <above/below> <count> by <date>?August 30, 2023$25,000
RAINNONew Orleans Precipitation contractAugust 26, 2021$25,000
INDIACLIMATEWill India meet climate <goal>?April 30, 2024$25,000
ETHMINMAXWill the spot price of Ether be <above/below> <price> by <date> at <time>?March 14, 2024$25,000
HURTBWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit Tampa?August 29, 2023$25,000
SCASE"What will the average of new COVID cases in <area> be?"December 21, 2021$25,000
SFFAWill the Supreme Court's ruling in Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College be a victory for the petitioners?March 29, 2022$25,000
HURSZHurricane SizeAugust 19, 2021$25,000
WEALTHYWill <person> be the wealthiest person in the world on <date>?March 14, 2024$25,000
ECMAP"Will the 2024 U.S. presidential electoral college map come out as <state_set_1> for Harris and <state_set_2> for Trump?"October 31, 2024$25,000
ROBOTAXIWill Tesla unveil the Robotaxi before <date>?April 8, 2024$25,000
KILLSWITCHWill California make law a bill that requires at least some AI models to have a kill switch before <date>?October 21, 2024$25,000
BILLCOUNT"How many <Senators/Representatives> will vote in favor of <bill> before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
TERMINALRATEWhat will the highest federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve be by <date>?12/22/2022$25,000
SILVERCALLWill Silver Bulletin correctly call the 2024 U.S. presidential election?November 1, 2024$25,000
SWINGSTATES24Will <party> win <count> swing states in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 18, 2024$3,000,000
BTCETHATHWill <cryptocurrency_1> hit an all-time high before <cryptocurrency_2>?May 1, 2024$25,000
CARBONXCARBONX Contract10/5/2021$25,000
RENTNYCWill rent in New York City be <above/below/between> <percent>?July 27, 2022$25,000
SEMIPPIWill the PPI value for semiconductors be <above/below> <value> in <month>?March 20, 2023$25,000
VULTURESWill Kanye West release a new album on Spotify by <date>?December 18, 2023$25,000
RATECUTWill the Federal Reserve cut rates by <date>?August 29, 2022$25,000
CONGESTIONWill congestion pricing in New York City be implemented before <date>?October 18, 2024$25,000
SILVERSTATESWill Silver Bulletin correctly call <above/below/between/exactly> <count> states in the 2024 U.S. presidential election?October 31, 2024$25,000
DOTPLOTWill the median dot plot for <period> be <above/below/between> <count>?April 19, 2024$25,000
ARGDOLLARWill Argentina dollarize its economy?November 29, 2023$25,000
APPLEFOLDWill Apple announce the development of a foldable phone by <date>?October 20, 2023$25,000
INFRWill the Senate pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill before <date>?7/28/2021$25,000
PRESINDEX"Will the Trump index outperform the Harris index by <above/below/between> <count> over <period>?"October 14, 2024$7,000,000
100.23Will the 30-Yr FRM be above <interest rate>?07/20/2021$25,000
CLOSESTSTATEWill <state> have the closest vote for the American presidency in <election year>?October 4, 2024$50,000,000
UAWWill United Auto Workers go on strike?August 31, 2023$25,000
VACCINEWWill any Covid-19 vaccine have its approval or authorization ended by <date>?June 3, 2024$25,000
BIGTECHLAYOFFWill <company> do a layoff by <date>?January 26, 2024$25,000
ROCKETHow many commercial spacecraft will launch?November 23, 2021$25,000
PRESPARTY"Will a member of <political party> win the Presidency by being the first inaugurated as President for the <year> Term of Office?"November 1, 2024$25,000
WGAWill the WGA strike end by <date>?June 23, 2023$25,000
LCPIYOYWill any monthly year-over-year U.S. inflation be <above/below> <percent> this year?March 4, 2024$25,000
WCPIWill inflation be <above/below> <percent> in <area>?March 3, 2022$25,000
SOFIMEMBERSWill SoFi add <above/below/between> <count> new members in <quarter>?April 30, 2024$25,000
BOOSTERBOOSTER Contract10/25/2021$25,000
TIKTOKSELLWill the United States enact a TikTok divestiture law?March 12, 2024$25,000
PCEWill consumer spending be <above/below/between> <count> in <month>?May 30, 2023$25,000
MURTHYMISSOURIWill the Supreme Court rule that the government violated the First Amendment rights of social media companies?November 29, 2023$25,000
COLDNYCThe COLDNYC Contract is a contract relating to the temperature in New York CityNovember 4, 2021$25,000
POWER"Will <political party> <have/not have> control of the House, <have/not have> control of the Senate, and <have/not have> control of the Presidency after <election year>?"October 4, 2024$7,000,000
TESLAWill Tesla deliveries exceed <count> in <quarter>?January 5, 2024 $25,000
HURNOWill a <hurricane_category> hurricane hit New Orleans?06/28/2022$25,000
TIPTAXWill a bill become law establishing 'no tax on tips' before <date>?October 28, 2024$25,000
SEAICESEAICE contract (relating to Arctic-wide changes in sea ice coverage)08/30/21$25,000
HARVARDWill Harvard admissions be <above/below> <count> in <year>?December 6, 2023$25,000
VANCEWho will be appointed to replace J.D. Vance as US Senator from Ohio?November 8, 2024$25,000
APPROVEThe APPROVE Contract relating to the U.S. Presidential approval rating as measured by RealClearPolitics10/5/2021$25,000
ECUADORPRESWill <candidate> be sworn in as President of Ecuador pursuant to the 2025 Presidential election?October 21, 2024$7,000,000
SWINGFLIPWill any of <states> flip who they voted for in the 2024 presidential election compared to the 2020 election?October 21, 2024$3,000,000
HARVPRESWill the new president of Harvard be <person>?January 10, 2024$25,000
ARGBANKWill Argentina end its central bank?November 29, 2023$25,000
MIAHIGHWill the high temperature in Miami be <greater than/less than/between> <degrees>?May 8, 2023$25,000
GSTORMGSTORM Contract (Geomagnetic Storms)October 18, 2021$25,000
TCJAPERMANENTWill the Trump tax cuts be extended?November 8, 2024$25,000
NEWFLUWill the new respiratory illness be declared a <epidemic_level>?November 28, 2023$25,000
GMECEOCHANGEWill the CEO of Gamestop leave by <date>?January 22, 2024$25,000
CBRETAIL"Will Coinbase volume be <above/below/between/at least> <percent> <retail/institutional> <before/in> <quarter>?"October 25, 2024$25,000
TIKTOKUMGWill a deal between UMG and TikTok be announced before <date>?February 7, 2024$25,000
BIGBANKLAYOFFWill <company> bank do a layoff by <date>?April 19, 2024$25,000
CONFCOUNT"How many Senators will vote to confirm <nominee> as <position> before <date>?"November 8, 2024$25,000
DAYLIGHTWill Daylight Savings Time become permanent?March 22, 2022$25,000
TWOWWill The Winds of Winter's release date be announced before <date>?February 21, 2024$25,000
JBEARDWill <nominee> win <award> at the James Beard Awards?April 19, 2024$25,000
MOVIEWill <movie> be announced before <date>?October 25, 2024$25,000
MAYORNYCPARTYWill a representative of <political party> control the Mayorship of New York City after the <election year> mayoral election?November 8, 2024$1,000,000
PRESPARTYSTATE"Will <political party> win the American presidential election in <state> in <election year>?"October 4, 2024$50,000,000
FEDRATEMINMAXWill the target federal funds rate range be <above/below/between> <percent>?December 14, 2023$25,000
ALTMANEQUITYWill it be reported that Sam Altman has received an equity stake in any part of OpenAI before <date>?November 1, 2024$25,000

You (probably) don’t need ReCAPTCHA

Google’s ReCAPTCHA is often the first tool that many webmasters reach for when confronted with the need to stop spam and automated malicious traffic from harming their services. In this post I explain several reasons why ReCAPTCHA is usually not the best solution to use for this purpose, as it is often unnecessary, inconveniences users, and subjects users to intensive tracking and fingerprinting that they are not able to opt-out of. Several alternative solutions to ReCAPTCHA for various threat models are presented as well as best practices for implementing captchas in general.

The face of evil

ReCAPTCHA is harmful

ReCAPTCHA is yet another free-of-charge product offered benevolently by Google for any webmaster to implement within their own services. How does ReCAPTCHA differentiate legitimate human users from bots? ReCAPTCHA relies extensively on user fingerprinting, putting emphasis on the question of “Which human is this user?” rather than the ordinary “Is this user human?”. It’s worth noting how much easier it is to successfully solve ReCAPTCHAs when the user is logged into their Google account, thus allowing Google to associate their actions with their real identity. A similar effect is often reported for users of non-Google browsers, who notice ReCAPTCHAs take more time to complete in Firefox over Chrome. This is in-line with many other anti-competitive techniques that Google has used over the years to help grow their market share.

Although determining exactly how ReCAPTCHA works is very difficult, with Google not only heavily obfuscating its JavaScript, but also implementing an entire VM in JavaScript with its own bytecode language, there have still been many attempts to reverse-engineer some of the client-side code, as well as to theorize about how the server-side logic operates. Initial attempts at reverse-engineering ReCAPTCHA show copious amounts of information belong collected, including but not limited to: plugins, user agent, IP address, screen resolution, execution times, timezone, language, click/keyboard/touch information within the frame of the captcha, test results of many browser-specific functions and CSS evaluation, information about canvas element rendering, and cookies, including those affiliated with your Google account that were placed within the last 6 months.

There is a good reason why ReCAPTCHA uses the google.com domain instead of one specific to ReCAPTCHA. This allows Google to receive any cookies that they have already set for you, effectively bypassing restrictions on setting third party cookies and allowing traffic correlation with all of Google’s other services, which most users use. ReCAPTCHA collects enough information that it could reliably de-anonymize many users that simply wish to prove that they are Not A Robot. As JavaScript is now required to even view a ReCAPTCHA, even a user running software such as TBB (Tor Browser Bundle) may find themselves giving away more information than they intend to, for example if they have resized their browser window (which is discouraged for exactly this reason).

Some unlucky ReCAPTCHA questions seem down right impossible for some users

Correspondingly, webmasters that use Google’s ReCAPTCHA on their websites must link to both Google’s Privacy and Terms pages (included in the form by default in a small 8px style that makes them appear unclickable). Although Google used to have its own privacy and terms pages for ReCAPTCHA, these links are no longer specific to ReCAPTCHA, but rather are the privacy and terms pages for all users of Google services in general, regardless of which service is being used, or if the user has (or even wants) a Google account to begin with. Therefore accepting these terms (implicitly, by attempting to prove you are Not A Robot) grants Google permission to do everything that they do to their regular users of their services to you, and little information is available as to what specifically is done (GDPR is likely to be unhelpful here, given ReCAPTCHA’s spam-stopping purpose). Not only are the unhelpful links in the ReCAPTCHA box never opened by users, but there is also no Google logo or visual reference to indicate that ReCAPTCHA is a Google service, so many users have zero indication that they have just consented to all of Google’s tracking just because they tried to leave feedback or create a ticket on your website. If you thought you could use the Internet without using Google’s services, try using the Internet without filling out a single ReCAPTCHA, which for some users is required to pay their bills, file their taxes, and sometimes even use Government websites (if you somehow manage this, next try never sending email to Gmail/Gsuite addresses or using Google APIs for a more exciting challenge). Good luck.

It is worth mentioning that caring about user privacy to this extent is likely to be outside of the scope of concern for most websites. Many websites are already so tightly coupled to Google’s services (commonly including Google analytics, Google ads, Google APIs, Google tag manager, Google static resources, Google OAuth, Google Compute Engine, and many others) that the addition of a Google captcha appears negligible. With that said, different websites have different values and different users, and many do not want to require users to agree to Google’s tracking and labor for basic usage. The level of centralization that ReCAPTCHA forces is not good for anyone except Google.

Apart from the privacy implications of ReCAPTCHA usage, the actual captcha is very tedious for many classes of users, sometimes becoming so difficult that users find themselves unable to to complete the captcha at all. Users hate ReCAPTCHA. They really hate ReCAPTCHA. ReCAPTCHA is so hated that some websites have a profit model of charging users $20 annually to disable ReCAPTCHA, which thousands of users pay for. If this sounds like a great new business model to you and now you want to add ReCAPTCHAs to every page of your website to attempt to maximize profit, I will find you. And I will force you to complete a ReCAPTCHA every time you want food or water until you die from malnutrition after the first week. I have read countless posts from users that became so frustrated with a service that used excessive ReCAPTCHAs that they swore to never use the offending website again. These are often intelligent users with no disabilities who are simply tired of being treated like dirt and wasting their time. Be kind to your users and help minimize the amount of ReCAPTCHAS that they have to solve just to be allowed to use the Internet.

ReCAPTCHAs become significantly more difficult if the user attempts to ‘opt-out’ of Google’s services and tracking by using software that hinders it, such as VPNs, TBB, and many anti-tracking browser addons and modifications. To demonstrate what is meant by ‘very tedious’, below is a real-time recording of myself solving a single ReCAPTCHA using TBB:

Spambots are known to give up when forced to be patient

I got lucky and only needed to complete two challenges. Sometimes there are ten or more. Watching the above video, you might think to yourself “I knew the tor network was slow, but I didn’t know it was that slow!”. You would be correct to take note of this discrepancy. If we open up the web developer console, we can see that the HTTP requests for new captcha images only take a few hundred milliseconds. Despite this, Google’s heavily-obfuscated JavaScript intentionally delays the appearance of the new images by several seconds every time, which I’m sure has something to do with the fact that bots give up when forced to wait, probably. This is not a nice way to treat users that don’t want to perform unpaid labor and be fingerprinted by Google. Keep in mind that the above video demonstrates one of the worst possible cases of ReCAPTCHA UX (which some userscripts may improve), and that the average user has a significantly quicker experience, providing that they are not attempting to thwart any of Google’s tracking and don’t make many mistakes.

In addition to this tediousness, the actual labor that the user is performing is directly used to benefit Google. Worry not however, as Google is eager to brag about the selfless humanitarianism that you’re engaging in by choosing ReCAPTCHA, stating the following on their main ReCAPTCHA page:

“Hundreds of millions of captchas are solved by people every day. ReCAPTCHA makes positive use of this human effort by channeling the time spent solving captchas into digitizing text, annotating images, building machine learning datasets.”

This is certainly a very rosy way of convincing you to feel good about forcing your users to engage in unpaid labor that directly benefits the world’s most powerful surveillance corporation. ReCAPTCHA is free for a reason.

Lastly, ReCAPTCHA is popular. Very popular. While this brings some advantages, it also means that there’s significant efforts to break ReCAPTCHA, and those efforts all potentially affect your website, with your captcha implementation being perfectly identical to a million others. As a result of this, there have been many papers published that break ReCAPTCHA over the years, generally with Google making modifications to improve their captcha afterwards. There have also been paid-for services that use human labor to solve captchas on behalf of a paying client for less than a cent each. For a modern and user-friendly example of bypassing ReCAPTCHA, see Buster. Buster is a modern browser extension (Firefox+Chrome+Opera) which helps you to solve difficult captchas by completing reCAPTCHA audio challenges for you by using speech recognition.


Captchas are not always necessary

Before implementing a captcha, it’s worth considering if one is necessary to begin with. To help with evaluating this proposition, consider if your threat model is concerned over customized or uncustomized spam. Uncustomized spam is pervasive across many Internet protocols, and you will encounter it quickly after enabling HTTP, SSH, or many other protocols on a server. It is generally unintelligent, cheap to execute, and easy to block, even without captchas. Customized spam, however, is spam that has been written to specifically affect a given company, service, website, or user. As customized spam is created by an actor that is able to tailor it to your service, it is more dangerous than uncustomized spam, and more effort is required to effectively limit it.

Many developers vastly over-estimate the likelihood of customized spam. As a competent programmer, it is easy to imagine how effortlessly someone could decimate your service with spam if they were sufficiently dedicated. One could imagine a malicious actor writing a simple script that could spam or DoS your website by just using Curl and bash. Even if you have a captcha, you can imagine them using OCR or machine learning to automatically bypass it, then using proxies and VPNs to automatically bypass your IP rate-limiting. While in this imaginative trance, you’ve forgotten that 99% of users have no clue how to do any of this, and do not even know what Curl or HTTP are. Furthermore, your service likely offers very little prospective rewards to would-be competent attackers.

Just because someone could spend hours (or minutes) writing a program to spam your website does not mean that someone will. Your personal blog about the latest vegan bacon is not a high-priority target for anyone. Adding a ReCAPTCHA to your Contact Me page is just a great way to get no one to talk to you. I’ve ran several websites with millions of pageviews that have received zero customized abuse and have spoken to other webmasters with similar experiences. Jeff Atwood of codinghorror.com once wrote similarly:

The comment form of my blog is protected by what I refer to as “naive captcha”, where the captcha term is the same every single time. This has to be the most ineffective captcha of all time, and yet it stops 99.9% of comment spam.

This is not a suggestion to do nothing, ignore basic security, and be unprepared for attacks, but rather to realistically consider your threat model and apply only what is necessary.


ReCAPTCHA alternatives for uncustomized spam

For uncustomized spam, a full captcha implementation is rarely necessary. This section lists some simple and effective tricks that stop most uncustomized spam from impacting your website.

Hidden form elements

Uncustomized spam is not intelligent enough to know when it should or should not fill out a form element. For example, adding a form element with a name of ‘url’ and hiding it with CSS allows you to reject any request that is made with it filled, which spambots are eager to do. To maintain accessibility be sure to add a label to this element so that users who use screen readers do not fill it out. Other good hidden form element names include ‘website’, ‘firstname’, ‘lastname’, ‘email’, and ‘name’, unless they are already being used legitimately.

Static questions

Uncustomized spambots are also so unintelligent that they do not correctly answer simple questions such as “What is 2+3?”, or “what is the name of this website?”. These questions effectively stop almost all uncustomized spam. Common software stacks such as WordPress and Drupal have free plugins that will allow you to quickly create questions like these.

Community-specific questions

If your website is community-centric such as a forum or blog, you can ask a community-specific question that prospective members of your community should know the answer to. This is a simple and great way to prevent users from joining your community that you believe shouldn’t be participating, either because they lack basic relevant knowledge, or because they are unable or unwilling to learn it. As an example, a community of mathematicians might ask the user to name a simple formula or solve an equation, given an image of it.

Effective at keeping out the arithmophobic



For another example, a community of niche media connoisseurs might ask the user to identify a certain character that they deem to be important to their shared culture.

The quality of our community members is of the utmost importance

JavaScript

Did I mention uncustomized spambots are unintelligent? Basic JavaScript is not executed or parsed by most uncustomized spambots, so using it to calculate the value of a form element is also effective. JavaScript can also be used to submit the form itself, set a CSRF token properly, or perform many other simple tasks. If your site has many users with JavaScript disabled, it is better to offer an alternative solution as well.

Third Party Services

From WordPress plugins like Akismet, spam-detection APIs like StopForumSpam, and APIs that evaluate users or IPs such as abuseIPDB, there are a lot of free (and paid) third party services to aid you in stopping spam in ways that are not visible to most of your users.


ReCAPTCHA alternatives for customized spam

If you operate at sufficient scale and/or if automated usage of your website is inherently lucrative enough, customized abuse will eventually happen for one reason or another. Remember that a captcha is just a tool to help verify that a given user is a human. It is not the only tool to help with this, and it is not the right tool for every use case. No solution is perfect and can stop a sufficiently-resourced attacker from abusing your service. This section lists some alternatives to ReCAPTCHA in roughly increasing order of complexity.


Django Simple Captcha

Django Simple Captcha offers a simple captcha for Django projects.

Django simple captcha. Yes, this actually stops many attackers

Captcha for Laravel 5

Captcha for Laravel 5 offers a customizable captcha for Laravel projects.

Captcha for Laravel 5, very customizable

CMS-Specific Captchas

Popular CMS solutions generally have at least one simple captcha plugin that is suitable for basic purposes. Here are some examples for WordPress, Drupal, and generic PHP.

Secureimage PHP captcha
Drupal match+slide captcha

Custom JavaScript functionality

Just as basic JavaScript stops most uncustomized spam, more advanced scripting can stop a lot of customized spam as well. For example, some websites require you to slide a jQuery slider element in order to successfully submit a form. There are examples of this for wordpress, jQuery (jQuery UI slider, Bootstrap slider), Prestashop, Node, and more, although these examples may not be suitable for production use and I have not tested them.

Slide to unlock

Just including true JavaScript evaluation as a requirement will raise the bar for attackers, and can be done without the user having to perform any actions. If you choose to write a lot of custom front-end code to evaluate users, be sure to do extensive user testing on every type of device and log failures so that they can be analyzed to further remove false positives.

Capy Puzzle CAPTCHA

Capy offers a simple puzzle captcha that requires the user to drag a puzzle piece into an empty slot.

All of the fun of finishing a jigsaw puzzle with none of the effort


SolveMedia

SolveMedia offers a captcha and corresponding plugins for a variety of popular software stacks, including vBulletin, WordPress, MediaWiki, Dupal, Joomla, and more. The captcha can scale its difficulty based on the threat score of a user.

he’ll come when you least expect it

If for some reason you feel the need to profit off of your captcha implementation, fear not, as there’s also a version fit for the capitalist dystopia of the near future:

Please drink verification can

Geetest

Geetest appears to use some fingerprinting, but otherwise works similarly to most puzzle captchas. Notable for being used on Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

hCaptcha

Lastly, as of 2020, even Cloudflare has switched away from ReCAPTCHA, instead using hCaptcha, an alternative that seems just as difficult to bypass as ReCAPTCHA, but that respects user privacy, and potentially even pays some clients for their users’ labor in data labeling.

hCaptcha’s website, showing example captcha challenges

This list is nowhere near exhaustive and many similar captchas have been excluded from it. If you are a software engineer, you likely think many of these captchas could be solved by software, which although correct, misses the point. Although in theory a captcha should be a perfect turing test, in practice, they are only used to make attacking your service more difficult so that spam is no longer cost-effective. Even a perfect captcha provides no guarantee of stopping all abuse. Nonetheless, you may be surprised at how few attackers are willing to execute JavaScript or perform OCR to automatically attack your website unless you run an extremely popular service.


Captcha best practices

If you have decided that you do need a captcha, consider if it’s truly necessary to implement it in all of the locations where you want to throttle automation. Showing users fewer captchas not only provides a better UX, but also improves KPIs like conversions and user retention.

Use rate-limiting where possible

As the purpose of a captcha is to confirm that the end-user is a human, a user should generally only have to correctly solve a captcha once. If there is an action that you would like to throttle to ensure it is not performed too often by a user, consider using rate-limiting as an alternative (or in combination with) a captcha.

Use reasonable thresholds for captcha presentation

Set reasonable thresholds for actions that you want to limit with captchas. Rather than presenting a user with a captcha after a single failed login attempt, allow several attempts. Brute-forcing secure passwords in this manner is not feasible to begin with, and if credentials from a database leak are being automatically cross-validated with your service, a post-login-failure captcha won’t even help.

Stop showing captchas to users that are just trying to read content. If your blog asks me to complete a captcha just to read a single post because I’m using a super-scary VPN as a result of your CDN’s “premium military-grade bot protection” feature, I’m going to close the tab. There are sometimes cases where captchas are more reasonable for read-only actions such as stopping active application-level DDoS attacks. Your blog is not one of these cases.

Do not require repeated captcha solves

If a captcha is part of a form that may fail validation and is reloaded upon failure, do not force the user to solve another captcha if they correctly solved the first one. This prevents users having to frustratingly solve captchas several times in a row as they fix their input (for example, adhering to your revolutionary password policy that requires at least 1 non-printable character, 1 Egyptian hieroglyph, and 1 iOS-only emoji).

Intelligently use other sources of validation

Consider if you have reasonably validated that a user is likely to be a human during previous interactions with them. If a user has a confirmed email address and phone number or proper two-factor factor authentication, it may be unnecessary to show them a captcha. Similarly, if a user has been a paying customer for several months without issues and is attempting to make a new purchase with their existing billing information, it is also a bad time to make them fill out a captcha. I mention this only because I’ve had to do it before.


The future of verification

It’s important to note that a sufficiently-resourced attacker can bypass any mechanisms you have in place to some extent. When a service has a billion users (Facebook and Twitter) or otherwise provides significant incentives for abuse (anything related to cryptocurrency), difficult trade-offs must be made when attempting to verify users.

Faced with this, some services that operate at very large scales not only use ReCAPTCHA, but also perform phone and/or email verification and employ a significant amount of custom automation-detecting heuristics. Twitter is a good example of this, as new users are required to both complete a ReCAPTCHA and (usually) verify a phone number. On top of this, Twitter has entire teams dedicating to stopping abuse, and yet the platform still has issues with millions of spambots, just as Facebook does. Although requiring phone verification has unfortunate consequences for anonymity, most platforms were not intended to be used anonymously to begin with. An even greater challenge is attempting to stop spam in environments where user anonymity is desired, which I provide some examples of at the end of this section.

With the current state of machine learning, it is becoming increasingly difficult to construct a captcha that is user-friendly. Some of the most effective attacks on advanced captchas such as ReCAPTCHA have simply involved taking a given challenge and querying a machine learning API to solve it automatically. Now that we have many API services to accurately label audio, images, videos, and more, this is only becoming more powerful, just as machine learning is in general.

Despite the impossibility of a perfect captcha, articles have been written decrying that captchas are dead for more than a decade due to the increasing possibility of true negatives (software that passes as a human). Despite this, most of the Internet is not covered in spam. Intelligent software engineers make much more money working at FAANG instead of covering the Internet in unsolicited fake Viagra ads, at least for now. For a potentially poor analogy to physical security, remember that we have physical items that can break doors, windows, cameras, sensors, locks, and much more. Yet, these protections are all still essential features of a physical security system. They are often not made to be impossible to break, but rather to make an attacker’s job significantly more difficult, skewing the effort/reward ratio enough to stop most attackers.

Regardless of the forthcoming AI supremacy, the current paths that larger systems tend to favor involve validating who a specific user is rather than only attempting to validate if they are human or not. Phone verification and sometimes even picture, ID, or address verification are found among large services that have a high potential for abuse, as well as our good friend ReCAPTCHA. Verifying users while attempting to better preserve anonymity is more difficult, but those that are determined generally find clever ways to do so. Some good examples include privacy pass (protocol paper), allowing users to anonymously skip captchas if they have already solved one, Apple’s new Find My Device feature, allowing Apple devices to broadcast their location with BLE such that it can only be read by the original device’s owner, and well-known security systems such as asymmetric cryptography, cryptographic hashes, differential privacy, etc, which can often be cleverly implemented in systems to improve security and often anonymity. Some other techniques that can be used to help verify users and reduce spam include proof-of-work and micropayments, both of which have been used successfully in most popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum for more than a decade, although can still be difficult to implement in everyday scenarios.

If you are Twitter or Facebook, no captcha will solve all of your issues. For everyone else, there are still a lot of simple tools and heuristics that go a long way in helping to stop abuse. Be kind to your users and try your best to not force them to spend their free time completing ReCAPTCHAs for Google. They will appreciate it.

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